Technological Unemployment
From May 26 through May 28, 2015, national and international educators, lawyers, scientists, scholars, ethicists, policy-makers and other government representatives gathered in Scottsdale, Arizona to take part in the Third Annual Governance of Emerging Technologies: Law, Policy and Ethics Conference. Once again, the conference proved to be a resounding success on all levels from the quality and variety of topics, to the attendees’ and presenters’ keen interest and feedback. Speakers gave presentations on a multitude of timely and thoughtful matters intersecting a multitude of significant areas falling under the scope of conference’s focus. The symposium kicked off with a plenary session on Technological Unemployment, featuring Silicon Valley-based author Martin Ford, sociologist-bioethicist James Hughes and ASU Center Research Fellow, Yvonne Stevens.
With his new book, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, hot off the press, Martin Ford discussed “why it’s different this time” and why we can’t compare the current era of technological progress to any other when it comes to automation-instigated job loss. Ford emphasized that hours worked, wages, job creation and population growth statistics indicate that market productivity is no longer tied to labor, rather it is increasingly tied to capital. Why is it different this time? Well, for one thing said Ford, technology is now cutting across all industries, not just one or two, as was reflected during prior techno-related employment disturbances. Another thing that has changed, according to Ford, is that more and more jobs are subject to automation — and fewer workers are required to get the job done. Add these factors to the exponential growth of technology and you have an increasing jobless economy.
James Hughes picked up where Ford left off, re-emphasizing that this time really is different, citing lower job participation and labor productivity trends over the last few years. Like Ford, Hughes pointed out that we are experiencing the “great decoupling” where productivity is no longer associated with job creation and higher wages. The benefits, said Hughes, are accruing to owners of capital and automation is increasingly rendering certain workers redundant, giving rise rise to inequality and creating a skill-biased economy. Hughes further stressed that no occupation “is safe in the long run.” Adding to that, said Hughes, is the growing unemployed or underemployed population that is living longer thanks to scientific advances. That group creates a huge burden on the state — pushing government to raise the retirement age to alleviate its financial obligations, thereby placing responsibility on older workers to secure job opportunities that do not exist. Hughes closed his presentation with a consideration of policy responses to technological unemployment, fully outlined in a paper (G. Marchant, Y. Stevens, J. Hennessy, 2014). Hughes’ take-aways: “we are all going to increasingly rely on entitlements and redistribution” yet policies that highlight education, support economic growth via public job creation, provide better quality of life through less work are worth serious consideration in this unique digital era.
Yvonne Stevens, challenged that if technology is indeed causing or playing a crucial role in unemployment, perhaps technological innovation should be discontinued or curtailed. Stevens proceeded to not only argue why this option should not be pursued but also why it is unlikely to be materialized. Stevens noted that the fear of technological unemployment has existed for thousands of years and that it is not a novel concern. Highlighting technologies invented through the course of time, she questioned whether we would seriously consider rejecting progress in favor of an innovationless society. Stevens outlined both the benefits and detriments of technology and technological progress. She challenged Ford and Hughes with regard to their claim that “it is different this time” and the belief that technology is killing and not creating a vast majority of jobs. Stevens noted that what is key in times of surges in technological innovation is proper and adequate skills-training and education so as to reduce the gap between the development and implementation of technology and a worker’s capability to use new technology to his or her advantage in the workplace. In other words, providing essential tools for workers to complement automation, not compete with it as MIT authors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee have often underscored. Stevens admitted that while technology creates jobs, it inevitably also takes some away. Certain workers are apt to fall between the cracks, therefore, a comprehensive policy intervention must be realized for those who are unable to “skill-up” to complement the machines. She concluded that human beings have always innovated and will continue to do so, for it is human nature to move forward, diminishing the likelihood of society’s ability to actively stop or decrease technological innovation.
Stay tuned: the above constitutes the first of a number of Governance of Emerging Technologies: Law, Policy and Ethics conference highlights we intend to provide over the next few weeks. Click here to access the currently available conference presentations.